Population
Growth and Decline
The world's population is growing. I know, massive surprise right? The thing is it used to be growing exponentially (very quickly - think Usain Bolt speed!!) but now it is slowing down. Despite that there is still around 7 billion living on Earth right now and predictions are that it won't stop growing for quite some time (we've already reached 7 billion a little earlier than predicted).
The graph shows the global population growth. Since 1800, roughly at the start of the Industrial Revolution, the growth has been exponential (increasing very quickly).
The Industrial Revolution was a period from the 1790s to 1860s where major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, transportation, and technology had a profound effect on the social, economic and cultural conditions of the times.
It began in the United Kingdom, then subsequently spread throughout Western Europe, North America, Japan, and eventually the world.
The graph shows how long it has taken for the world's population to increase by 1 billion people. It took 118 years from 1804 to double from 1 to 2 billion but since then the length of time has shortened considerably to a mere 12 years between 1987 and 1999!
What it also shows is that the length of time it will take to add further billions is starting to increase again - showing that whilst the population is still growing, the rate is slowing down.
The interesting question is when, if at all, will we reach the point of zero population growth?
Some people have suggested it may be as early as the 2020s, others say the 2050s and some think as late as the end of the century. The point is, we don't know for certain if it will ever happen.
The population of a country is always changing. In some it will be growing whilst in others it will be declining. In some the change is so small it looks as if the population is staying level.
We can measure the change of population in a country by looking at its natural increase. This is the difference between the number of babies being born and the number of people who die each year. Because there are so many people in a place we usually give the figures per 1000 people.
If it is a positive number, there are more births than deaths, we will see a population increase.
If it is a negative number, there are more deaths than births, we will see a population decline.
If the birth and death rates are equal (or almost) we get what we call a population balance.
Russia
Russia is a middle income country. It has a natural decrease of 0.6%.
Russia's population is slowly declining, a trend which is set to speed up as the years go by. The primary causes of Russia's population decrease and loss of about 700,000 to 800,000 citizens each year are a high death rate, low birth rate, high rate of abortions, and a low level of immigration.
REASONS FOR RUSSIA'S DECLINING POPULATION
High Death Rate
Russia has a very high death rate of 15 deaths per 1000 people per year. This is far higher than the world's average death rate of just under 9. The death rate in the U.S. is 8 per 1000 and for the United Kingdom it's 10 per 1000.
Alcohol-related deaths in Russia are very high and alcohol-related emergencies represent the bulk of emergency room visits in the country.
With this high death rate, Russian life expectancy is low - the World Health Organization estimates the life expectancy of Russian men at 59 years while women's life expectancy is considerably better at 72 years. This difference is primarily a result of high rates of alcoholism among males.
Low Birth Rate
Understandably, due these high rates of alcoholism and economic hardship, women feel less than encouraged to have children in Russia.
Russia's total fertility rate is low at 1.3 births per woman. This number represents the number of children each Russian woman has during her lifetime. A replacement total fertility rate to maintain a stable population is 2.1 births per woman. Obviously, with such a low total fertility rate Russian women are contributing to a declining population.
The birth rate in the country is also quite low; the crude birth rate is 10 births per 1000 people. The world average is just over 20 per 1000 and in the U.S. the rate is 14 per 1000.
Abortion
During the Soviet era, abortion was quite common and was utilized as a method of birth control. That technique remains common and quite popular today, keeping the country's birth rate exceptionally low.
According to a Russian news source, there are more abortions than births in Russia. The online news source mosnews.com reported that in 2004 1.6 million women had abortions in Russia while 1.5 million gave birth. In 2003, the BBC reported that Russia had, "13 terminations for every 10 live births."
Immigration
Additionally, immigration into Russia is low - immigrants are primarily a trickle of ethnic Russians moving out of former republics (but now independent countries) of the Soviet Union.
Brain drain (where young, highly qualified people leave an area) and emigration from Russia to Western Europe and other parts of the world is high as native Russians seek to better their economic situation.
Yemen
Yemen has a natural increase of 3.2% and statistics indicate that Yemen is at the top of the highest population growth rates, where the fertility rate of a Yemeni woman reaches 6.1 births.
According to the last population census conducted in 2004, Yemen's population reached 21 million. The country, ranked among the 20 poorest countries worldwide, has the highest population density on the Arabian Peninsula.
In 1975, Yemen's population was only 7 million; however the number increased three times to reach 21 million in 2004.
Early marriage or child marriage is among the factors that help population growth, as this helps increase the fertility rates. A Yemeni woman can deliver, on average, 6-8 living children.
A recent study revealed that 75 percent of Yemeni women marry at an early age (between 15-20 years old).
REASONS FOR YEMEN'S GROWING POPULATION
Early age of marriage (48% of women are married by the age of 18)
Low literacy rates among women: as most girls marry early, they rarely complete secondary school
A high fertility rate and improved child vaccinations.
Japan - an ageing population
WHY IS JAPAN'S POPULATION STRUCTURE CHANGING?
There are two main reasons:
People in Japan are living longer. The average life expectancy is 79 for men and 85 for women. This is due to a healthy diet (low in fat and salt) and a good quality of life. Japan is one of the richest countries in the world and it has good health and welfare systems - Japan spends 8.2% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on healthcare and there are 210 doctors for every 1000 people (compared to 190 in the UK).
The birth rate in Japan has been declining since 1975 (as the graph above shows). This is partly due to the rise in the average age at which women have their first child. The average age rose from 25.6 years in 1970 to 29.2 years in 2006. Throughout this period, the number of Japanese couples getting married has fallen, and the age at which people get married has risen.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR JAPAN?
An increasing elderly population, together with a shrinking younger population, means that there will be a number of challenges in the future:
An increase in the cost of pensions. More elderly people, living longer, will require pensions for longer. With the falling birth rate, there will be fewer workers in the economy, so higher taxes will be needed to fund those pensions. The Government has already raised the pension age from 60 to 65.
A rising number of elderly people living in nursing homes. Since 2000, everyone over 40 has had to contribute the equivalent of £20 a month to pay for care for the elderly.
An increase in the cost of healthcare, as more elderly people require medical treatment. The Government has already raised patient contributions for medical expenses from 10% to 20%.
Mexico - a youthful population
WHY IS MEXICO'S POPULATION CHANGING?
There are several reasons why Mexico's population structure, with its current pyramid shape, is changing:
A low death rate - just 4.78 deaths per 1000. Not only are more babies being added to the population, but people are living longer as well! This is due to more childhood vaccinations being introduced, an increase in doctors, and efforts to reduce infant mortality.
Although the birth rate is falling, there is still a large percentage of young people. Even if these young people have fewer children than their parents did, the population of mexico will still continue to increase. Today's children are tomorrow's parents.
It is expected to take at least 50 years before the popuation structure of Mexico loses its current pyramid shape, and the population levels. Today's young people in Mexico will then be moving into old age.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR MEXICO?
A growing population, coupled with an increasing percentage of young people, means that there are a number of challenges and opportunities facing Mexico:
A large youthful population requires an increase in school places.
Large numbers of young people may be unable to find work, so some migrate to the USA in order to find employment.
There is a growing manufacturing industry. The Mexican economy is expected to grow to overtake the UK's and become the seventh largest economy in the world by 2050.
Although Mexico is a strongly Catholic country, abortion has been legalised in Mexico City in an attempt to reduce the number of abandoned children.
Demographic Transition Model
The demographic transition model shows population change over time. It studies how birth rate and death rate affect the total population of a country.
The five stages of the demographic transition model:
Stage 1
Total population is low but it is balanced due to high birth rates and high death rates.
Stage 2
Total population rises as death rates fall due to improvements in health care and sanitation. Birth rates remain high.
Stage 3
Total population is still rising rapidly. The gap between birth and death rates narrows due to the availability of contraception and fewer children being needed to work - due to the mechanisation of farming. The natural increase is high.
Stage 4
Total population is high, but it is balanced by a low birth rate and a low death rate. Birth control is widely available and there is a desire for smaller families.
Stage 5
Total population is high but going into decline due to an ageing population. There is a continued desire for smaller families, with people opting to have children later in life.
As a country passes through the demographic transition model, the total population rises. Most LEDCs are at stage 2 or 3 (with a growing population and a high natural increase). Most MEDCs are now at stage 4 of the model and some such as Germany have entered stage 5.
As populations move through the stages of the model, the gap between birth rate and death rate first widens, then narrows.
In stage 1 the two rates are balanced.
In stage 2 they diverge, as the death rate falls relative to the birth rate.
In stage 3 they converge again, as the birth rate falls relative to the death rate.
In stage 4 the death and birth rates are balanced again but at a much lower level.
In stage 5 they start to diverge again as the birth rate falls below the death rate.
Think yourself lucky we don't make you do this...yet!
Great video on the science of overpopulation